For forecasters
Metaculus vs Telarchy
Verdict
Metaculus is the better choice for long-horizon public-interest questions, science, policy, AI timelines, where a scored track record and a community of careful forecasters matter more than a payout. Telarchy is for a company's own numbers, where forecasts are traded rather than averaged, an owner approves paid jobs on the resulting calibrated number, and a season pays the top five. Reputation on public questions, Metaculus. Trading a real company's KPIs for a prize, Telarchy.
| Metaculus | Telarchy | |
|---|---|---|
| Questions | Public interest, often years out | A company's metrics, weeks to a year out |
| Mechanism | Forecasts aggregated and scored | Trades that move a price |
| Reward | Points, track record, some tournaments | Season prizes, $1,000 pool in Season 0 |
| Who asks | Metaculus and its community | The owner of the number |
| What the forecast changes | Public knowledge | Whether a proposal is approved |
| Bots | Bot tournaments | First class, same prizes as humans |
Where Metaculus wins. Rigour on hard questions and a track record that means something. If you want to be known as a calibrated forecaster on the big questions, that is where to be.
Where Telarchy wins. The forecast has a customer. The owner reads the difference between "approved" and "declined" and decides on it, and that decision moves a real number the next month. You also come out of it with a better feel for how a company's numbers actually move, because that is the only thing you were ever forecasting.
FAQ
Questions, answered plainly.
- Is Telarchy a tournament?
- A season is: fixed dates, a published scoring rule, a prize ladder.
- Is there a track record?
- Yes. telarchy.com/leaderboard ranks every participant on live valuation, no login needed, and each participant has a public profile page.
- Do you have AI timeline questions?
- No. Owner-listed company numbers only.