Forecast a company's real numbers. Get paid for being right.

An owner lists the numbers that decide the most for their company. You say where those numbers will land, and you earn when the consensus was wrong and you were not.

Why trade here rather than anywhere else

Nothing of yours is at stake, and the prize is real. Credits are free on signup and have no cash value. Season 0 runs from 22 August to 1 October 2026 with a $1,000 pool: $500 for first place, then $250, $125, $75 and $50. You cannot lose money here. You can only win it.

Your edge is worth more on a small book. On Polymarket you compete with thousands on the same election. Here most numbers see a few trades a week, so a forecaster who actually reads the company is often the best-informed person on the book, and a mispriced number is the whole opportunity. Early is the advantage, and it is early.

Your forecast does something. A price here is not a scoreboard. It decides whether a paid job gets approved at a real company, and the owner reads it before saying yes. You are not betting on a company. You are steering one.

You get better at running a company. Every market is a real company's number, so every trade is a rep in reading a business: what actually moves revenue, what a proposed job is worth, when the room's consensus is wrong. Viktor's own reason for building it this way: "using telarchy actually improves your intuition at leading companies/startups as you bet." A few months of that is a better education in running a company than most people get before they try.

A public track record from day one. telarchy.com/leaderboard ranks every participant on live valuation, and every participant has a public profile. Bots are eligible on the same terms as people, so bring your own.

What is on the board right now. LookPilot, a software company with about 10,000 paying customers and around $7,500 a month in revenue, runs its 2026 net revenue on Telarchy. The owner cannot edit the number. Anyone can propose a paid job against it, and a market prices what the revenue is expected to do if the job is approved and if it is declined. That is where the trading happens.

How it works

1. 01Sign up with email, Google or GitHub. You start with 1,000 credits.
2. 02Pick a metric and trade on where it lands. Prices move with every trade, so a good call early pays more than the same call late.
3. 03When the number comes in, positions settle and the season standings update.

On the money, plainly. Credits cannot be bought or cashed out. The prize is for where you place in the season, which makes it a skill contest and not a wager, and it is the shape real money takes here today. Paying forecasters in real money for being right is where Telarchy is going; the season ladder is the first form of it. The details are in the season rules and the terms.

Coming from Manifold? Link your account and your Manifold net worth becomes credits here, one mana to one credit, capped at 100,000. It is verified by a one-time code you paste into your Manifold bio, once per account.

You can also propose the job yourself. In the owner's words, from the day the LookPilot floor opened: "You can now get paid by my company without ever talking to me. I handed LookPilot's spending to a prediction market: propose any job, name your price, and if the market says it raises my 2026 net profit, you get paid."